At the end of May, North American E-commerce giant Amazon announced that the Federal Aviation Administration had approved the company to conduct beyond-visual-line-of-sight (BVLOS) drone operations in its experimental delivery area of College Station, Texas. Solving the core challenge of airspace integration to allow the BVLOS operations in College Station marks a novel moment for both Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) and Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) that could grow both markets to an estimated $102 billion capitalization by 2030. With both UAS and AAM markets transitioning into commercial viability, Jekaterina Shalopanova, Chief Business Officer of Aerviva, explains how each market growth will create shortages of workforce in the industry

Drone Development Labor Shortages

Boeing’s commercial pilot and technician outlook, a long-established tool for predicting market shortages, projects the demand for as many as 649,000 new pilots, 690,000 new maintenance technicians, and 938,000 new cabin crew members over the next 20 years. Boeing’s market outlook’s most recent edition, published in 2023, does account for the effects of AAM and alternative transportation on the need for pilots, however, it does not consider the effect of unmanned aerial technology in its methodology to forecast the workforce needs of the aviation industry.

“The growth of unmanned aviation has largely been unaccounted for in current projections of the aviation labor market,” Shalopanova said.

According to Grand View Research, the drone delivery market size will reach $57 billion by 2030. This market capitalization is only for drone delivery and does not include other potential platforms. However, looking at the drone delivery market, we can see areas where this segment of the UAS market will take away from traditional aviation.

For example, Bulgaria-based Dronamics has entered interline agreements with Qatar Airways Cargo and UAE-based logistics company Aramex, with regulatory approval to operate in all of Europe holding fast to launching commercial operations as early as 2025. Dronamics’ Black Swan drone is powered by an engine that was manufactured by Rotax, which is the most popular design for light general aviation aircraft. The Black Swan drone also is a conventional take-off and landing, operating out of traditional airports, using traditional ground personnel and equipment for loading and unloading.

“Already in Europe, unmanned aircraft are requiring a service from traditional aircraft mechanics, increasing the competitive nature of recruiting for qualified maintenance personnel,” Shalopanova said.

As UAS platforms are scaled, they will likely require more resources used by the traditional aircraft market. Large unmanned aircraft systems manufacturers, such as San Diego-based Natilus, are designing platforms like the 3.8-tonne-payload Kona, which will utilize both the Pratt & Whitney PT6 according to the company. Other companies are automating current aircraft models, such as Reliable Robotics, and Xwing, which are partnered with express shippers such as FedEx and UPS have automated Cessna 208 aircraft. Both companies have said they expect to scale their automation platform to larger aircraft models including the ATR. This could cause an increased demand for maintenance workers who already are needed for traditional aircraft of the same models which have not been automated.

“The emerging platforms are increasingly drawing from traditional aerospace engineers in their design, and maintenance, it is likely that this will continue and increase competitiveness to attract qualified personnel,” Shalopanova said.

Rise of AAM

Potential resource competition with the existing aircraft industry may also be sourced from the AAM market, which is expected to reach more than $45 billion by 2030. These studies originate from Precedent research and take into account the current growth of companies currently developing AAM aircraft, such as Ehang, Airbus, and Boeing, Joby Aviation, Hyundai Motor Company, Lilium, Matternet. Boeings forecast already includes an effect of AAM platforms, which could replace helicopters in certain use cases, and can carry 4-6 passengers and cargo with electric vertical takeoff and landing capability.

In the United States, United Airlines and AAM developer Archer announced a partnership to utilize AAM as an alternative to ground transportation to connect passengers from downtown Chicago to nearby O’Hare airport. According to a recent job posting by Archer, the company is requiring FAA Airline Transport Pilots for its initial recruitment.

“When AAM platforms require the same licensing requirements as airlines, this means that the job market for these pilot recruits will become more competitive as the industry grows,”  Shalopanova said.

In November of 2023, AAM developer Job Aviation performed a flight test in Manhattan, paving the way for its use in that airspace. Currently, conventional helicopters can transport passengers from downtown Manhattan to Joh F Kennedy International Airport for a 30% increase in fare – with prices changing depending on real-time market conditions. For the Manhattan to JFK use case, Deloitte research found that AAM platforms could cut costs by 14%, with future savings increasing to 24%.

“Advanced Air mobility offers a tremendous cost-saving disruption to both inter-city and city-to-rural situations,” Shalopanova said. “In all examples, AAM will increase opportunities for customers’ entry into the aviation marketplace.”

Some platforms, like the Beta Technologies Alia 250, have already garnered orders from Uber, UPS, Blade, and Air New Zealand, among others. Alia, like other AAM platforms such as Joby and Lillium, is currently among the anticipated AAM platforms that will require pilots, and potentially ground crew to operate.

With the UAS, and AAM markets on the verge of maturity, companies in the aerospace market will need to develop new strategies to compete for qualified personnel. Soon, AAM and UAS platforms will draw away potential aviation professionals, which will influence the labor market of aviation. Companies in the Aerospace industry should be prepared for increased competition with their peers for qualified individuals, with an increased competition requiring solutions which Aerviva can provide.

With such tech heavy industry causing the disruption of the labor market, Aerviva’s human-centric approach to aviation and aerospace personnel resourcing ensures increased attractiveness for the best individuals on the labor market. Current UAS and AAM industry projections provide that the drones and advanced mobility markets will be twelve times the size of IAG group. If market capitalization is any indicator of professionals needed, aerospace companies will need to approach staffing differently.